Monday, May 26, 2008

I almost ran out of gas in 1979

In 1979 when gas was 59 cents a gallon and Jimmy Carter was trying to get everyone to raise their thermostats up to 78 degrees in summer and lower to 70 degrees in winter to save energy everyone thought he was crazy. There was a little talk of solar power and gasohol. Gasoline with 10% ethanol added to save on oil consumption. We just kept sailing along but interest rates were sky rocketing because of inflation. A cheap home loan was 10% if you were lucky enough to get one. Everyone said you will never see a 10% home loan again because some were already creeping up to 12% and beyond. I made $29,000 in 1979 and that was good money back then. My house payment was $540 per month including taxes and insurance on a $48,000 loan. Back in those days my house payment could not be more than 25% of my gross monthly income. I was at the boarder line because my gross monthly income was $2416 and 25% of that was $604. Most loan companies liked you to have a bigger cushion especially if you had a car payment which of course I did.

One day while building my home in 1979 I went to fill my car up and gas had went from 59 cents a gallon to 99 cents a gallon almost over night. Within three months gas was $1.24 per gallon. Poor old Jimmy was the blame for everything. Solar power came out of the wood work. Reagan was elected President the next year and he took all the restrictions off the oil companies to open up what he called a more competitive market. Interests rates were in the 15% to 18% range. Savings and loans were going broke all over the country. Houses were being left and repossessed. Cars weren't selling. Reagan lowered taxes to stimulate the economy which of course raised the deficit. He created 400,000 minimum wage jobs. As usual the rich didn't feel a thing like they never do and the poor suffered through it like they always do. The middle class working people took it in stride and kept plugging along.

What is really amazing is in 1981 just before ole Ronnie removed all the restrictions on the oil companies they were after oil shale in the Rockies and were willing to spend billions to refine it. Also all the oil reserves on the Indian lands were up for grabs. Now I may have my dates wrong but not the time period. All of a sudden all of the construction to produce oil from shale stopped abruptly along with drilling and search or oil on Indian controlled land. EPA restrictions started to be strictly enacted and enforced. Refineries closed down by the dozens. Why did we need all the refining capacity one day and the next day we didn't need it when we were using more oil?

Last summer when a refinery shut down for one day gas in the U.S. would rise 3 cents a gallon. Now the price for a barrel of oil has doubled and the price has only went up $1 per gallon. We are not using more oil. Don't blame China, don't blame India. Blame the greed of the traders. If a dozen or so traders sold out and ran with their profits the price of oil would drop to $40 a barrel tomorrow. If we pull out of the middle east and make friends and not war the price will drop by $40 per barrel. If we offer technology over bombology we may gain a friend of two.

Since the middle east is a tribal culture a true democratic government will never work. I don't care what country it is. To have peace in any middle eastern country there must be one ruler and one ruler only. Look at the Saudis. One family rules the kingdom. They do any excellent job. Aside from their wealth they are respected leaders. Theirs is not a democracy like ours but it works. We had no problem with Iraq when Iraq was at war with Iran. Why because we did not have diplomatic relations with Iran. Actually Iraq was a close Ali. Due to disputes with the Kingdom of Kuwait which we will never understand Iraq invaded Kuwait. Knowing Arabs like I do. ( I worked in the middle east and I worked with Arabs and had Arabs work for me. I understand their culture and the way they think. Read any book about an Arab. They say barter with them or negotiate with them over everything. They love it and they expect it. Push an Arab and you make an enemy, kiss and Arab and you have a friend for life. They are very family loving and peace loving people. They love recognition just like you and I. ) George Bush #1 not idiot #2 never negotiated with Iraq. He gave them an ultimatum. Iraq by that time knew they had upset much of the world but what Bush didn't know nor his advisers is you must allow an Arab a way out of his mess gracefully. You cannot embarrass him to his people. All that was needed was for Bush #1 to tell Iraq we think you may have made a mistake. Or did you know your troops invaded Kuwaiti soil. That would have allowed him to save face to the world and in turn save more 4000 American troops to this day.

Guess what? We have 5-7/8% interest rates and people are loosing homes at record pace. The old adjustable rate trick and of course zero principal payments. We have fat executives and realtors with MBA's and PHD's that made their companies go broke or near broke by their greed. House prices that escalated almost 200% for exisiting homes. Now we have realtors and home builders crying the blues. Did they ever think that maybe the person they sold that $390,000 property only had a $35,000 per year income and he could not even afford the first month payment even though they told him to hang on to it for six months and make $100,000. It wasn't their loss was it. Who lost then. Well it was the poor loan originator that was told my their supervisor to approve the loan that lost his or her job, the poor slob that was dumb enough to buy stock in the loan company because of the 21% returns and the poor guy that not only lost the house but his credit as well. Has anyone ever thought that maybe, just maybe the market is over priced and saturated beyond the amount of people that are seeking to buy a home. Same way for the car business, that happens every 5 to 7 years as well. Did the greedy boys on wall street and the futures markets ever think that the more they control the market the more they screw up the economy. It's no fun having alot of money if your the only one with money. It's more fun to sail a boat when others have sail boats to sail with.

So now I go to the local 1$ store to buy something for a $1. The manager has a masters in business and the assistant Mgr has BA in business. I was really impressed especially when I knew the manager was making a whopping 20K per year and the assistant mgr was making 18K. I really felt sorry for the part time clerk that was making $8.50 per hour, that equates to $17,460 per year if my math is right. A few years back a good hard worker could be a manager or assistant mgr. The manager made out the schedules and made sure everyone had at least one weekend day off and treated them like real people. Now the manager has a district manager that is 24 yrs old and never had any life experiences, has no feelings what it is like to loose a job or have to feed a family. They think anyone that has anything less than a masters is lazy and dumb. All of these young people and their brain power or so they think don't seem to realize that their grandparents were lucky to have a high school education. They worked hard, respected each other and moved up the ladder by hard work. Education didn't mean you were smart it meant you wanted to specialize in an area such as business. You knew starting out from college you would more often than not end up working under someone with a high school diploma or even a drop out that worked their way up. These people were proud to teach the young grads because they wanted the grads to do more and make things better then they had it. Why don't we manufacture in this country anymore. It's real dam simple. A board of directors agrees with company management at the weekend retreat the company can make more money by having 12 yr olds in India, Mexico or China or some other country do it. Then we start complaining about inferior products. Now don't forget those products are being made for a company in this country that contracted them to make them. What did this company forget. Quality control? Don't that cost money? It's easier to blame the country where the product came from rather than assure good quality in the first place. Do you think some dude from a toy company out on a golf course gives a dam about lead paint in a toy. Not until the recall then it's not the company faultfor not having onsite quality control it's the countries fault. As along as it goes on behind his back he don't care until it hits his bonus check and stock options.

I am not a blogger I am a blabber. I do know this I can see the big picture one hell of alot quicker than anyone in a board room. Who was from Fidelity Investments that said I bought the stock because I liked the coffee. That's a smart man. The same company today is trying to make a come back. To little to late. They are going to soak up a few billion in franchise fees and go to the dogs again.

Now I guess to be important I need to go out a buy a Beamer or a Hummer is more like me. Na I think a Navigator. Anyway I need to watch a self promoting idiot like Cramer that doesn't have a clue about the real world. He sure tricks an awful lot of people into buying stock though. Stock is only for brokers to sell and 401's to invest in. That way only a few get rich on the fees. The price is manipulated by a few people and a few retirement funds.

Better yet I'll sit back and be laughed at by the pimple faced smarties. I had pimples once myself, the only difference was back in my day we were made to listen to our elders not made to listen to the brats. I just wonder how many 5 yr old to 9 yr old kids run the households now days.

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